week 2 instant impressions

After watching most of weeks 2 action I’m left with some unstatistical instant thoughts I would like to share with you. 

1. Fantasy football can be unkind to very kind people. Case 1: Steven Jackson and the Rams have 3 straight plays that were/should have been reviewed. In the end he gets a TD taken away from him, along with the rest of the game due to his brash reaction. Now for Coach Fisher, I understand making a statement to your team about sportsmanship, but not with one of the best players in franchise history! How about backing up your player and fighting for his touchdowns (yes, I’m a Steven Jackson fantasy owner, Could you tell!)

2. Danny Amendola is the "Rich Man’s Wes Welker." I’m sure you’ve heard the comparisons, but after week two’s performance I’m taking Amendola over Welker the rest of the year. Why? He has less competition for targets but has the same skills set. He had 15 catches on 16 targets!

3. Reggie Bush- He looks like the USC product we thought he would be. Can he possibly be a 1000 yard rusher 2 years in a row? I think so, he has the wiggle and the speed to be elite.

4. Chris Johnson- On the fantasy focus they said "trade him for pennies on the dollar." I was like, “what, no way! He’s still Chris Johnson, I can’t do that.” Here’s the question, would you trade for him? I wouldn’t but I’m the lucky one already stuck with him. At this point you hold him and start Amendola,Morris,Ingram,and  another potential flex over him. If you get a good offer take it because his schedule gets harder before easier. 

5. Trent Richardson- We finally saw what makes him a top 20 RB. Now he gets a great matchup against the Bills in week 3. Start without fear and if you don’t own him, try to steal him from a uneducated owner. 

6. CJ Spiller-Could he be a top 5 RB? I think he already is! My only remaining concern is, what does he do against a top notch defense? His weakness is the team around him and the few weapons to take the pressure of him. But that’s also a strength, because until Jackson comes back he’s a 20+ touch guy.

Final Impression- We need the normal Referees back! I watch 15-20 calls that changed games for teams and fantasy owners. There was obvious defensive holdings in the Eagles game (The entire Eagles secondary). A missed peal back on Sean Lee that could end a guy’s career! And missed touchdown calls that could change the outcome of many games. For fantasy owners there isn’t much you can do because it’s going to hurt everybody. However it takes away from the game and makes it frustrating to watch. 

Over/Under week 2

So far this season I’ve explained my thought on what makes fantasy players startable or unstartable. We know that each player must have some obvious skill,added into opportunity and a good matchup. One way to gage opportunity is touches, but maybe more important is snaps played. At http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/snapcounts football outsiders track each player’s snaps. This tool will give you an idea of who to play and who to bench.

OverValued: (ESPN Projected Points)

Doug Martin (17 points)- The hype has skyrocketed coming off a 24 carry,95 yard performance. However a key component of the fantasy equation is opportunity, and now they face a top 5 offense in the Giants. I expect the Bucs to play catch-up, putting Martin around the 10-15 carry mark.

Kevin Smith(8 points)-It’s pretty simple, THE 49ERS. They allowed 1 point to the Packers RB’s and ranked first last year it RB points allowed. In a PPR league he could be a low end flex, but I’m staying away.

Shonn Green(16 points)- He had 94 yards on 27 carries in week one vs. the Bills. That’s 3.48 Yards per carry against a defense that allowed 4.8 YPC last season. If that doesn’t prove that Shonn Green is nothing more than an average RB, I don’t know what to say.

Desean Jackson(10 points) and Jeremy Maclin(14 points)- Both receivers are on the injury report and look to be in danger of missing this week’s game. But more important is the struggle of Michael Vick and the superb Ravens defense. I’m staying away if I can.

Underrated:

Justin Blackmon(4 points)- This game looks to be a 10+ point game, meaning the Jags should be throwing late. Blackmon was on the field for 95% of the Offensive snaps, which is the most of any receiver on the roster. With that in mind, the opportunity for targets and catches are very high.

Donald Jones(4 points)- A very sneaky flex play in deeper leagues. He appeared in 95% of the offensive snaps in week one and the injury to David Nelson looks to cement him into the lineup. He now gets the Chief’s defense that was shredded last week by the Falcons. 60+ receiving yards should be obtainable.

Donald Brown(13  points)-Last week he scored 10 points, with 48 yards and 1 Touchdown on only 9 carries. This week they get the Vikings, meaning they can stay committed to the run game as the game should remain competitive. If Brown gets 20 touches, he will be a lock for 100 yards on the ground. He Should be a flex start in almost every league.

Dexter McCluster(3 Points)- He now has eligibility at RB and WR in most leagues and should be used to fill your weak spots. Last week he got 10 targets and appeared in 83% of his team’s snaps, which is more than any other Chiefs RB. He’s a dangerous weapon and always a threat for a big play, meaning he will reward all those gutsy fantasy owners.

20 yard + plays

Every week I review each teams plays and results. One thing that is important to me is how many 20+ yard plays does a team have/allow. Not very many players get 15+ touches, so if the oppurtunity for a big play it there it increases their value even more. Fantasy Football is about making educated guesses at who will perform the best. A good formula for that is big play Oppurtunity!

20+ Yard for	Pass	Runs	20+ Against	Pass	Run
Bengals	1			5
Ravens	5			1
Eagles	3	1		2	2
Browns	2	2		3	1
Colts	7			7	2
Bears	7	2		7
Lions	6			6
Rams	1			1
Titans	3			3
Patriots	3			3
Falcons	4			5	1
Chiefs	5	1		4
Jaguars	3			3	1
Vikings	3	1		3
Redskins	7			6
Saints	6			7
Jets	2			2	2
Bills	2	2		2
Dolphins	3			5
Texans	5			3
49ers	3	2		3
Packers	3			3	2
Seahawks	1			2
Cardinals	2			1
Panthers	5			2
Bucs	2			5
Steelers	3			2
Broncos	2			3
Giants	2	1		2	1
Cowboys	4	1		4	1
Chargers	3			3
Raiders	3			3
Averae	3.46875	0.40625		3.46875	0.40625

Week 1 Impressions

Wow what a great week 1. We watched the underdogs hold their own and potentially change the perceptions of their teams. It’s clear the Browns will not be a roll over, and the Rams could possibly contend for a playoff spot. How bout them Redskins? Might we see a surprise fantasy juggernaut.

 After watching all the week one games, I’m left with a couple impressions on some interesting players. In most of my blogs I will steer away from the obvious like Julio Jones is a stud, and try to answer the pressing questions of should I drop him, Claim him, or trade him.

Alfred Morris (RB,WAS)-He looked very impressive vs. the Saints with 96 yards on 28 carries and 2 TD’s. Everyone knows about “Shannigan”, but what was important was the fact the Morris was productive with Hulo on the field.

Who is Alfred Morris? He’s a rookie who was picked in the 6^th round out of Florida Atlantic. He had two 1000 yard seasons in college and had a career average of 4.4 yards per carry. My hesitation is in the fact that the Redskins had 4 different leading rushers last year. He’s interesting and worth a claim. However if you have a waiver budget, he only deserves 15-20% depending on your desperation.

CJ Spiller (RB,BUF)- He was a sleeper of mine in the preseason and busted onto the scene on Sunday. He had 169 yards on 14 carries with a touchdown, while looking very explosive. The question is, do you trade him if you own him, or buy him if you don’t?

 At this point it looks like Jackson may be working his way out of the picture with age and injury concerns. If you own him you should hold him unless you can get top 20 talent for him. If Jackson stays out of the picture, Spiller appears to be a top 10 back, considering his schedule only hold 3 or 4 top notch run defenses. If you can steal him away from some unimpressed owner, take the chance.

Stephen Hill(WR,NYJ)- He should be available in most leagues and should be considered for a claim. He will remain the Jets 2^nd receiver for the foreseeable future. Can the #2 receiver in a ground and pound offense be successful? Look at Plaxico Burress last season! He had 97 targets with 45 catches and 8 TD’s. Here the thing, Hill is better, younger and more explosive than Burress.

One more thing, not sure if it matters, but Hill is a 6-4 receiver from Georgia Tech. You know who else is a big receiver from Georgia Tech? Calvin Johnson! He won’t be that good, but 3/4^th of that puts him as a top 40 receiver.

Randall Cobb- He was another trendy sleeper this preseason and had a coming out party on Sunday. He had 9 catches for 77 yards and a punt return TD. He should be picked up in most leagues, but he’s not yet a must start. You should hold him, because if Nelson or Jennings goes down, Cobb could be a high end flex!

Over/Under Week 1

Before kick off on Sunday it’s always important to go through projections and see where your players rank. You almost always are starting your studs but your mid-round players are always subject to match up starts. One very good tool is the Points against link at ESPN.com. This week I go through some players I think are overvalued or undervalued compared to ESPN’s projections. I will also predict week ones top scorer. ()-ESPN Projections

Overvalued:

Jamal Charles(18/91/1 TD,16pts)- The fear is in the form of a three headed monster. 1. The Falcons only allowed an average of 13 points per game to opposing backs in 2011. 2. He may and should be limited coming off a knee injury. 3. Peyton Hillis!

Reggie Bush(16/72/1 Rec TD, 15 pts)- This is a crazy ranking! He squares off against 2011’s 2^nd toughest fantasy run defense. He also plays for a coach that throws the ball 60% of the time. He’s a flex at best.

Trent Richardson(14/63/1TD, 14 pts)- He’s a rookie who has played in 0 NFL games, and now faces a very tough matchup in the Eagles. Most importantly, I don’t see him getting 14 touches unless it’s on the first 2 drives, because after that it’ll be a blowout!

Steve Johnson-6/77/1td- I know he’s played well against Revis in the past, but this year he already battling injury, and the Jets run defense is the unit to target.

Undervalued:

Michael Turner(17/71/1TD)- The Chiefs ranked 24^th in points allowed to running backs. This has the makings of a game that Turner goes 20/105/ and 2 possibly 3 TD’s. He’s a must start for me!

Mike Tolbert(4/21,3pts)- This is a gut call on a TD run by Tolbert. Both Williams and Stewart are battling injuries and the Bucs allowed the most fantasy points to RB’s last season.

Micheal Crabtree(4/66,6pts)-If the Packers offense is clicking this could be a high scoring game. Either way the Packers surrendered 19 receiving TDs to Wide Receivers last year. I think Crabtree gets right around 4 catches, but one will be in the endzone.

Danny Amendola- 6/51,5 pts- This is going to be a game of catchup for the Rams and Amendola seems to be the most trusted target. I could see 15 targets with possibly 8 catches. He’s a strong flex in a PPR league.

High Scorer (excluding QB’s)- Michael Turner- He faces a weak Chiefs run defense and should get plenty of mileage on his rested wheels. He could very possibly go off for 3 TD’s at ArrowHead!

Dal vs. NYG Impressions, Week 1

At some point in your life you’ve probably heard that “First impressions are everything!” Some people believe that, some people don’t. But in football first impressions can go a long way. After watching last night’s game we have a bevy of options for the week to come. Should you sign Kevin Ogletree, or look to move Bradshaw. In this blog I will tell you my early opinions on key fantasy players from Wednesday night’s game. Like everyone’s first love, I reserve the option to change my mind!

Kevin Ogletree WR DAL- Ok you can’t ignore an 8 catch, 114 yard, 2 touchdown game. But is this performance sustainable? Ogletree had 11 targets on Wednesday, that’s only 1 less than Witten, Austin, and Bryant combined! Now commonsense would lead us to think that this will not be the case all season, however must we forget Laurent Robison. Robison had 81 target last season and 11 TDs, which looks to be reachable for Ogletree. Now I aint no dummy, Im not dropping high end sleepers for him, but he is worth a roster spot to see if he can hold up this production.

Ahmad Bradshaw RB NYG- Bradshaw had a very productive game last night, averaging 4.6 yards per carry. He had 76 rushing yards which seems to be about his cap. Here’s the thing, Bradshaw only had one 100 yard game last season and only one game over 17 carries. This is a pass first team. My advice, hold Bradshaw through week 5 to improve his trade value. In the next 4 weeks he faces the Panthers,Eagles,Browns, and Bucs, who ranked on average 25^th against the run. After week 5 look to trade him for high value!

Victor Cruz- Many fans are upset with his 3 drops, which happened to be a game killer. However for fantasy owners you did see 11 targets with 6 catches. Like I’ve said before, he does not have elite talent, but he does get elite targets. I don’t think his value will skyrocket or plummet. So if you drafted him Id hold him. If you didn’t, I wouldn’t acquire him.

Demarco Murrey- McFadden,oops. I mean Matthews, dang it. I meant Murrey, has an over whelming amount of talent, but the question has always been can he stay healthy? Last night we saw him break 3 or 4 tackles on a couple of plays and bust off long runs. He’s defiantly a top 10 back in terms of talent but can he withstand an entire season. If you own him let him play like a stud, while looking to gain on your investment. If you find that desperate owner willing to give up his roster for him, I’d cash in!

Peyton Hillis potential sleeper

What is the true formula to win your fantasy football league? Is it drafting a QB in the first round, or going running back heavy? Both of these could be right! But it has nothing to do with the position they play, it’s about their potential value and perceived value. Ray Rice is outstanding, but if the rest of your picks bomb, you will be picking high again next year. What will make your fantasy team a playoff contender is the success of your late round fliers. Everyone gets a chance at a stud, not everyone can pick the right sleeper. Today’s sleeper is Peyton Hillis.

This year Hillis is being drafted at an ADP of 92. Why so low? I honestly don’t know, because I’m more excited this year than I was last. He’s now on a Chief’s teams that ran the ball 487 times last season! But wait, what about Jamal Charles, he’s a superstar right? Yes, but hardly a work horse as his career high is 230 attempts and that was pre-ACL tear. What can we expect this season? A near 50-50 split, which leaves Hillis with a possible 230 carries and most likely the goal line work.

Now that we know the opportunity is there, is he capable of performing at an elite level? The Chiefs new Offensive Coordinator is Brian Daboll. So why do you care? In 2010, Hillis busted on the scene with 1177 yards and 11 TD’s. Who was his offensive coordinator? You guessed it, Brian Daboll.

Daboll also has a recent rejuvenation on his resume. Last season he was the OC of the Dolphins were Reggie Bush surpassed a 1000 yards for the first time in his career. Also important, is the career average of running teams under Daboll. His last 3 seasons as OC has led to a 4+ yards per carry.

If you’re not convinced yet, give me one more chance! HIllis has 10 games in which he has 20+ carries. In those 10 games he has 1151 yards and 11 TD’s. That’s an average of 115 yards and a touchdown.

 He has 15 games with 15+ carries. In those 15 games he averages 93 yards a game and just under one touchdown.

He also has 17 games over 13 carries. In those 13 games, he averages 93 yards a game. If I can be blunt, he can still be a stud. Look at last season’s week 16 game where Hillis rushed for 112 yard against the Ravens 3^rd ranked rush defense.