Over/under week 5

In week 5 there are 4 teams on bye: Dalls,Detroit, Tampa Bay, and Oakland. With that in mind many of you are left to fill flex spots with waiver wire pickup or bench players. Here are some sits and starts for week 5. This week I will tell who I like and what I predict they will do.Good luck!

Starts:

Ryan Matthews (Over 13 Points): It didn’t take long for Ryan Matthews to get in the dog house in San Diego. But let’s be honest he is there most talented back and faces the NFL’s worst rush defense,The Saints.

Willis McGahee (Over 11 points): His numbers have not been great thus far, but he is coming off a 100 yard performance in week 3. The basis for this call is the game plan. Manning is smart, and will feed McGahee to keep Brady off the field.

Brian Hartline (over 10 Points): He’s still only a flex start to me, but if you have a hole he could be a high risk, high reward fill in. This game is likely to be a shootout due to the simple fact that the Bengals will not be able to establish the run. When Miami throws the ball it goes to either Hartline or Bess, meaning they both are likely to surprise 10 fantasy points.

Malcolm Floyd(Over 10 points)- He’s the number 2 Wide out in a pass first offense. Now he gets the Saints who allow 27 points a game to WR’s. This game will likely be in the 30’s for both teams, and that is good news for Floyd owners.

Eric Decker (Over 10 Points) Very similar to Malcom Floyd. Basically put: Pass first offense + poor pass defense+ shootout=good Flex Start.

 

Bench:

Panthers RB’s( No Panthers RB over 6 points): First off, they are still splitting carries making them a flex start at best. But this week they get the nasty Seahawks defense that allows only 9 points a game to RB’s. Divide that by Newton,Stewart,and Williams, that’s 3 points apiece. No thank you.

Rashard MendenHall (Under 8 points) First off, I’m being cautious coming off an ACL tear. Secondly, this looks like an areal shootout. More importantly, the Eagles allow only 10 points a game to RB’s. I think Mendenhall gets 15 touches tops, making him a very low flex start.

Pierre Garcon (Under 8 points): He’s admitted to not be completely healthy, which lands him directly on my bench. But if that doesn’t persuade you, the Falcons allow only 13 points a game to opposing WR, and there’s a lot of receivers in Washington.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis(Under 8 points)- He’s very pedestrian in the RB ranks and gets a Dolphins run defense that hasn’t allowed a 20 yard run yet this season. It’s going to  be a shootout folks and that doesn’t do much for Green Ellis.

20+ yard chart

With bye weeks upon us, it’s time to look at some good matchup for plug in players. It’s obvious that the Bucs, Redskins, and Patriots look to be the teams to attack through the air. So who might be a great plug in start this week?

Eric Decker: He Plays with Peyton Manning against a defense that has allowed 20 plays over 20 yards. Sounds like a must start to me!

Now if you’re looking to fill a void left by McFadden,Murrey,Martin, or Leshore, there’s a couple great options this week.

Chargers Backs: You still can start Matthews against a poor Saints run defense, but if your desperate Jackie Battle could be a gutsy flex start. Last week Battle recorded his second 2 TD’s game this season, and looks like a good gamble to score at least 1 TD this weekend.

Ben Tate: I’m not jumping ship yet, mainly due to the fact that he gets the Jets this weekend. First off, the Jets are a bad team, meaning there might be garbage time yards available for Tate. More importantly is the poor rush defense of the Jets, meaning Tate could bust off a couple long runs, making him a good flex start.

Cedric Benson: A solid RB 2 against one of the worst run defenses in the game, The Colts.

20+ Yard for	Pass	Runs	Games	20+ Against	Pass	Run	games
Ravens	23	2	4	Bucs	21	2	4
Giants	20	3	4	Redskins	20	2	4
Saints	19	3	4	Patriots	20	0	4
Panthers	17	4	4	Bears	17	1	4
Redskins	17	3	4	Browns	16	3	4
Chiefs	16	6	4	Ravens	16	1	4
Eagles	16	5	4	Dolphins	16	0	4
Bears	16	3	4	Saints	15	5	4
Bengals	16	1	4	Bills	15	4	4
Browns	15	3	4	Raiders	15	3	4
Colts	15	0	3	Packers	15	2	4
Lions	15	0	4	Titans	15	0	4
Bills	14	6	4	Eagles	14	4	4
Dolphins	14	4	4	Panthers	14	4	4
Cowboys	14	1	4	Cowboys	14	1	4
Patriots	13	3	4	Chiefs	13	4	4
Texans	12	3	4	Giants	13	4	4
Broncos	12	2	4	Lions	13	3	4
Bucs	12	0	4	Bengals	13	1	4
Falcons	11	2	4	Cardinals	12	3	4
Packers	11	2	4	Broncos	12	2	4
Titans	11	2	4	Texans	12	0	4
Cardinals	11	1	4	Jets	11	5	4
Chargers	11	1	4	Colts	10	5	3
Raiders	11	1	4	Falcons	10	3	4
Steelers	11	0	3	Jaguars	10	3	4
49ers	9	6	4	Vikings	10	0	4
Rams	7	3	4	Chargers	9	3	4
Jaguars	7	1	4	49ers	9	2	4
Jets	7	1	4	Seahawks	9	2	4
Vikings	6	5	4	Rams	4	3	4
Seahawks	6	0	4	Steelers	4	2	3
Averae	12.96875	2.40625	126		13.03125	2.40625	126
			Poor Pass defense
			Big Play Pass OFF
			Big Play Run OFF
			Below Average
			Stout Run Defense
			Poor Run Defense
			Lacklust Run Offense

Dont be "That Guy."

You’re sitting at a black jack table and you get dealt two jacks. You have 2 options, double down or hold. Well the first hand the dealer is sitting on a 7, so you choose to hold. The dealer flips his second card and gets a 7. Looking good, until he flips his third card, and it’s an 8! Dang, ok its one hand.

Hand two you get 2 queens. This time you choose to split, double your chances right. On your first flip you get a 3. “Hit me!” Another Jack, ok you still got one split left. Your first draw is a 5. “Hit me!” A 7, another loss!  What’s my point, Fantasy football is like cards. Skill is needed, but not always rewarded.

 But this piece isn’t all about how to change your luck, it’s more about what to do when your unlucky. Let’s be honest all you can do is put yourself in the best situation, like hitting when you have 13, or doubling down on 10’s. Just as important is not turning into the, “if I woulda started Brian Hartline over Julio Jones, I woulda won.” owner. You may be right, but there’s no way you are ever sitting Julio Jones for Brian Hartline.

One of the more painful things to watch is every NFL game. Why? Because you see all the, “if that woulda happened”plays. Let see, last week I watched: Jermicheal Finley have a diving James Jones steal a touchdown. Ray Rice have 3 goalline attempts stuffed by a poor browns defense.

There are positive examples for owners too. Like Steve Smith getting a 30 yard catch, down by 29 with 15 seconds left, in week 2. Or Brandon Marshall’s garbage time TD last night. What does this all mean, Its 60% luck 40% skill! Yes there is skill, but some days, weeks, and years, it’s just not your time.

So what can you do? Continue to put the best players on the field, AND SET YOUR LINEUP. Nothing is worse than an owner who just gives up, it ruins the fun for everyone else. With that in mind, how can you save your season? I have 3 tips!

Trade,Trade,Trade- Trade high, Buy Low. Look at players production, does it match their normal output. If it doesn’t, is it a fluke or an improvement? A Great example is Dez Bryant and Aquan Boldin. Both players exceeded their normal output in week 4. Let’s be honest, Boldin is not a top 5 Receiver, and Bryant has two-100 yard games in his career. If you’re struggling you may fill some holes by trading these overvalued players away.

If you own Ryan Matthews or Demarco Murrey (and you’re losing) it may be time to get the best value you can, to save your season. Only you can tell what the value for your players are, but it’s time to change something if your struggling.

Sign Handcuffs- We went over how there is 50% luck and 50% skill in fantasy football. So what can you do, try to get lucky on a backup. Kendall Hunter, Jacquizz Rodgers, Bilal Powell, Jackie Battle, Brandon Bolden, and Jonathan Stewart all could be starters by week 8. They are unstartable at the moment, but if an injury happens they could save your season.

Take Risk on matchups- If your 1-3 or 0-4, is another loss going to kill you. Maybe or maybe not, but at this point you might have to take some risk. Maybe sitting Steven Jackson for Brian Hartline is a gutsy move, but what do you have to lose. Most importantly if you continue to roll out the same group every week and finish 1-12, did you really try?

Need help with a trade, feel free to comment and I would gladly give you my opinion.