Top 10 QB's

In years past quarterbacks use to be the unattractive, desperate, first round pick. But, with 4 QB’s throwing for over 4,900 yards the fantasy draft priority list has changed (only 3 QB’s in NFL history have thrown over 4,800 before 2011). My rankings reflect many things, but the most important are consistency and opportunity. Let’s get started!

10. Phillip Rivers: Why is a Pro Bowl QB ranked this low? Well he ranked 3^rd in interceptions thrown, 11^th in passer rating and 9^th in fantasy points in 2011. And by the way, he lost his most targeted receiver, Vincent Jackson.

9. Peyton Manning: Remember opportunity, opportunity, opportunity! Manning’s new coach( John Fox) averages only 480 pass attempts per season, which would have ranked 26^th last season. What does that mean? If Manning’s career averages hold steady he would throw for 26 TD’s with 3648 yards. That would rank him next to…..Mark Sanchez!

8. Eli Manning: Last year Eli threw the 4^th most in the league while posting the 4th highest yard total. Why the low grade? He ranked 14^th in completion percentage and I see a drop in his pass attempts this season.

7. Michael Vick:If Vick would have stayed healthy last year he would have surpassed 4300 passing yard along with 700 yards rushing. How often can you draft a 5000 yard QB at number 7?

6. Cam Newton: Very similar to Vick, but about twice the size and way more REALIABLE. I think we can safely expect 5+ rushing TD’s, along with an increase in completion percentage leading to 4200+ yards.

5. Tony Romo: If you like safety then Romo’s your guy. Last year he was 7^th in points, 3^rd in Completion percentage, 5th in TD’s and his team attempted the 11^th most passes. He’s a safe bet and consistency should be rewarded!

4. Matthew Stafford: He most likely will fall to the second round behind the big three, but very well could be the top scoring QB. He was 3^rdin yards last season, 1^st in attempts, and 4^th in TDs.

3. Drew Brees: I know, 1st in yards, 1^st in TD’s and 2^nd in attempts, so what gives? My gut tells me that Brees is still safe and very elite, but no one knows the impact of not having the head game planner, play caller, and boss around the facility. If he drops lets say 5 TD’s and 500 yards he’s not the top fantasy QB.

2. Aaron Rodgers: Similar to Brees, I’m worried about the loss of Offensive Coordinator, Joe Philibin. At this point we must be picky and Rodgers has injury concerns and a new OC. I think those things considered Brady takes the leap to my safest QB.

1. Tom Brady: If you’ve ever seen the green “Think Safe”Signs, Brady should be on it. He has started every game of every season, except for the fluke ACL tear in 2009. He ranks in the top 4 in every passing category and just added Brandon Lloyd, (966yds) and Jabar Gaffeny (947yds) to his receiving core.

Top 10 WR

Wide Receiver is this year’s goldmine. It’s filled with depth and multiple sleepers. Unlike RB’s and QB’s, there’s a significant chance that my number 10 ranked WR could switch with number 2. My advice, take advantage of the depth and look RB early.

10. Roddy White: His skills are diminishing, but with 181 targets in 2011 he is still considered a WR1. He will regress some, mostly due to the immergence of Julio Jones, but should remain effective due to a potential increase in his catch rate (55% in 2011).

9. Greg Jennings: In the last 4 years Jennings’s has surpassed the 1000 yard mark 3 times. The only time he didn’t was last year when he missed 3 games. If healthy, he’s a sure bet for 1000 yards and 65+catches.

8. Brandon Marshall: He has only scored more than 7 TDs once in his career, and his new team did not have a receiver over 37 catches or 70 targets in 2011. So why 9^th? Well, he’s 1 of 3 players to have more than 1000 yards 5 seasons in a row, and his schedule is filled with potentially high scoring games.

7. Victor Cruz: I’m not sold that he is elite talent, but he does get elite targets. Last year he got 131 targets and caught 82 of them. He should receive another 110+ targets and once again be a fantasy force.

6. Percy Harvin: On his way to finishing 8^th in points he scored 15 or more points in 6 of the last 7 games. With Harvin now a staple in the Vikings offense, a top 5 season is easily within his reach.

 5. Steve Smith: He’s fallen on most draft rankings because of his age. However, at age 32 he played in all 16 games while recording 1390 yards. With an aggressive offense, he’s a shoe-in for 1100 yards.

4. Julio Jones: With an aging Roddy white, and a shift towards a pass happier offense, Jones targets should top 100. With that in mind 1200 yards and 65+ catches are well within reach.

3. Wes Welker: Can he repeat his monster 2011 fantasy season? Well, he hasn’t had less than 86 catches in the last four years, he averages 6 TDS a season over that span, and is in an offense that throws the ball 59% of the time. Simply put, YES!

2. Larry Fitzgerald: Fitzgerald has by far the worst QB on this list. What makes him so great? He’s uncover able, plays in a weak pass defending conference, and will receive 8-12 targets regardless of how well he’s covered!

1. Calvin Johnson:96 Rec, 1681 Yards, 16 TDs, and the Lions offense is still getting better! Johnson always seems to be doubled teamed but what makes him my best receiver is YOU CAN’T COVER HIM! He’s unquestionably the best receiver in the game.

Top 10 RB's

Since the beginning of fantasy football Running backs have been the safe first round pick. However, this year’s batch of top 10 running backs seems to be followed by an immense amount of questions. These question marks leave us wondering one thing? RB or QB with your first pick? QB is safer this year and it’s also deeper. However, If you miss on a top 5 RB, your depth chart will likely be a rotating mess of average RB’s.

10. Darren McFadden: It’s no secret he has all the tools to be a great NFL RB. My concern is the fact he’s never played more than 13 games in a season. He’s overvalued in round 3, but undervalued in round 4.

9. Marshawn Lynch: He averages a pedestrian 4 yards per carry but receives an un-pedestrian 65% of his teams carries. As long as he’s the bell cow ,he’s a top ten fantasy running back.

8. Adrian Peterson: He was the BEST running back in the NFL before his knee injury. I have doubts that he will return to the top. But, if healthy he’s a mid-level RB1.

7. Maurice Jones Drew: He receives 70% of his teams carries, got 63 targets in 2011, and has a career 4.7 YPC. However, the hold out situation looks very sticky and similar situations haven’t yielded on-field success. He could be a steal, but if he continues to holdouts I’m staying away.

 6. Michael Turner: He may be aging but he’s the ground hog on a potent offense. He scored 10+ points in 11 games in 2011 and has played in 16 games 4 of the last 5 years. I see one more year of consistent production.

5. Steven Jackson: Ok, he’s 29 years old, but New Coach Jeff Fisher has only 2 seasons without a 1000 yard rusher on his resume. Jackson may not lead the league but he’ll be top 10.

4. Chris Johnson: Last year’s production should give you an idea of Johnson’s statistical floor. With a full off season and a commitment to be relevant again, Johnson could hit 1900 total yards this season

3. Arian Foster: Could be the number 1 RB with an impressive 4.7 YPC and 71 targets in2011. What keeps him at number 3 in my rankings is his past injury risk along with the 32% of carries he loses to Ben Tate.

2. Lesean McCoy: I’m not suggesting another massive TD year, but he’s a safe bet for 1000+ rushing yards with 50+ catches. He a touch more reliable than Foster and has far less competition for carries.

1. Ray Rice: He’s a staple in the Ravens offense with 3 straight years of 16 games. He’s pretty darn good with a career 4.6 YPC and 4 catches per game. He should be the next RB to surpass the 2100 total yard mark.